You can play the long game without a defined goal by building availability in four areas (resources, time, energy and skill) so that when an opportunity shows up, you are ready for it. Plenty of people want to work toward something big but have no idea what they will be doing in five or ten years. They might be in a different town, in a different job, or even a different person.
The answer is to stop hunting for the perfect goal and start preparing for what it calls planned luck. This article walks through the four kinds of availability and a final mindset shift.
Watch the full video here, or skip to the breakdown below.
The long game at a glance
- Two kinds of luck
- Availability of resources: extra time and money
- Availability of time
- Availability of energy
- Availability of skill
- Be proactive and call it luck later
- Focus on probability, not possibility
1. Two kinds of luck
There are two types of luck. The traditional kind is buying one lottery ticket and winning millions, and you can ignore it because you cannot plan for it.
Then there is planned luck, which happens when opportunity meets availability. You are in the right place at the right time. Availability splits into three: availability of resources, of energy and of skill, and it treats time as part of the first.
Planned luck is opportunity meeting availability.
2. Availability of resources: extra time and money
This means having extra time and money by evening or by month end. Extra money can be used in three ways: to fall back on, to buy immediate gains or to invest for future gains. A long-term plan is not required to justify earning more, because each use has its own long-term purpose.
- Money to fall back on lets you take extra risk, or stay safe if something unforeseeable happens.
- Money for immediate gains lets you upgrade your quality of life. It also fixes the problem of a great opportunity arriving that you simply could not afford.
- Money for investing needs no explanation.
So the first step in playing the long game without a particular goal is to find ways to raise your earnings enough to cover those three scenarios.
3. Availability of time
Availability of time means being able to spend 10 to 20 hours a week on something outside your usual schedule. Most people fill their time with distractions until an outside authority needs them. They scroll TikTok until it is time for work, watch TV until bed, and take vacations until the days run out. Their schedule is technically full, but full of nonsense.
Breaking that cycle means organising your days or weeks around slots that belong to you, not time you merely wait out. It matters for the long term because it gives you room to look out the window, figuratively, and to peek behind the curtain at what is coming.
Picture one hour a day that nobody is allowed to interrupt. You grab a coffee and watch people pass by. Your mind settles, you get calmer, new ideas appear and you break from routine. That state is where you can see where the future is going. Another use is one or two hours daily to learn about things that interest you, without the guilt of feeling you should be doing something else.
4. Availability of energy
You cannot play the long game if your present is chaotic and drains every ounce of energy. Prolonged periods of high stress do not push you forward, and the video sees no glory in building a highly demanding environment.
Availability of energy means minimising the effort it takes to maintain your current life, and you do that by removing friction points. Say you go to the gym because a healthy body makes sense for the long run. Waking up very early to get there and back adds pointless friction. It makes more sense to use the extra money you made to join the closest gym, even if it costs more, which also gives you time back.
It all works together. The common mistake is to think of the long game as hoarding resources, when it is closer to the opposite: using them to buy yourself time and mental space.
5. Availability of skill
What do you do with the extra time and mental space? You either get better at what you do or add a new skill.
Imagine a spot opens up for the job you always dreamed of, but you only ever dreamed about it and never prepared, and you watch it go by. Or you have an exciting idea and even wrote notes, but you never act because you are not good enough yet, and you see only problems. This is where availability of skill matters. All the prep work puts you in a position where learning, practising and educating yourself is easy.
When people say they lack the time, energy or money to improve their lives, the video’s view is that they have the resources but use them without direction.
6. Be proactive and call it luck later
A grandiose goal is not required to feel accomplished. Good things can happen without you planning for them, and what matters is your availability when they come near. Other people will call it luck, because from outside they cannot see how carefully you managed your resources.
To win a race, you need to know a race is happening, to have the resources to enter, and to have the skill to have a chance. If you sort out the luck part, you are already planning for the future better than probably anyone you know.
In simpler words, if you want to play the long game and do not know what the game is, be proactive with how you spend your resources and time. Leave enough space that adding something new feels exciting rather than overwhelming.
7. Focus on probability, not possibility
Here is the bonus mindset change. The phrase anything is possible is technically correct, but it gives you nothing to work with.
Take the example of starting a tech company today and selling it for 100 million dollars in five years. Possible? Sure, it breaks no law of physics. Probable? With no tech experience, no business experience and no resources, the video puts the chance below 1%. Add launching two or three successful businesses and it jumps by 20 to 30%. Add tech experience and it climbs another 10%, and access to resources adds 10% more.
Serious entrepreneurs start businesses not because winning is possible but because it is probable given their knowledge and resources. They check whether the probability justifies the effort.
There are a million ways to apply this. Doing interesting things and becoming an interesting person raises the probability of meeting interesting people. Building skill and education raises the probability of a higher earning potential. Taking care of yourself raises the probability of a better life.
You do not need to see the end goal to do the right thing.
You already have what you need
A great idea is not required to get to work. You already have what you need to make long-term progress, and it is a matter of doing it.
Start with one availability, whichever is weakest, and add probability to your side one step at a time.
FAQ
How do you plan long term without a goal?
Build availability in four areas: resources (extra time and money), time, energy and skill. Then when an opportunity appears, you have what it takes to take part.
What is planned luck?
Planned luck is what happens when opportunity meets availability. It is different from traditional luck, such as winning a lottery, because you can prepare for it.
What does availability of time mean?
It means being able to spend 10 to 20 hours a week on something outside your usual schedule, with time slots reserved for yourself instead of filled with distractions.
How do you reduce friction in your life?
Use your extra resources to remove effort. The example is joining a more expensive gym that is closest to you, which saves time and spares you from waking up early.
Why focus on probability instead of possibility?
Because anything is possible, but the phrase gives you no information. Probability tells you how likely something is given your knowledge and resources, and you can improve it step by step.
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